Accurate climate models play a critical role in climate science and policy, helping to inform policy- and decision-makers throughout the world as they consider ways to slow the deadly effects of a warming planet and to adapt to changes already in progress. To test their accuracy, models are progr
A new study expands on previous work that was featured in the most recent major climate report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . It investigates whether the global mean temperature 6,500 years ago was higher, as suggested by proxy evidence derived from natural archives of past climate data, or lower, as projected by models, when compared to the late 19th century, a period marked by a notable surge in anthropogenic warming due to the Industrial Revolution.
“Quantifying the average temperature of the earth during the past, when some places were warming while others were cooling, is challenging, and more research is needed to firmly resolve the conundrum,” Kaufman said. “But tracing changes in global average temperature is important because it’s the same metric used to gauge the march of human-caused warming and to identify internationally negotiated targets to limit it.
We also know that, whether the numbers trend up or down, the change in global average temperature in the past 6,500 years has been gradual—probably less than 1 degree. This is less than the warming already measured in the last 100 years, most of which humans have caused.
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