Rice production for the marketing year ending July 2023 is set to log its largest production shortfall in two decades, according to Fitch Solutions.
Workers cultivate rice seedlings at an agricultural service station in Hangzhou in east China's Zhejiang province Sunday, April 16, 2023.The shortfall is partly due to result of "an annual deterioration in the Mainland Chinese harvest caused by intense heat and drought as well as the impact of severe flooding in Pakistan," Hart pointed out.
Many countries will also be forced to draw down their domestic stockpiles, said Kelly Goughary, senior research analyst at Gro Intelligence. She said countries most affected by the deficit would be those already suffering from high domestic food price inflation such as Pakistan, Turkey, Syria and some African countries.
That could lead to rice futures falling in year-on-year terms to below their 2022 level, but remain elevated at "more than one third above their pre-Covid mean value, in part as inventories are replenished after a period of extensive drawdown."
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