Global investors are reducing their holdings of Chinese government bonds, a steady source of secure returns during the pandemic years, as they prepare for some monetary tightening in China and eye juicier stock markets in the reopened economy.
"If investors are saying that I want to trade the China recovery, the answer is not Chinese government bonds . The answer to participating in risk-on opportunities in bonds would be Chinese offshore credit and long renminbi," said Jason Pang, portfolio manager of the China Bond Opportunities Fund at J.P Morgan Asset Management.
In contrast to the global tightening trend, China has been easing monetary policy over the past two years. That has helped its bond market outperform peers. Markets such as South Korea, India and Indonesia are likely to start pricing in cuts as the next policy step, he added. “I don’t see a big trade in China’s local currency sovereign bonds, either in FX or in rates”, said Polina Kurdyavko, head of emerging markets and senior portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management.
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