Economists are steadily downgrading their forecasts for global growth. Some countries are looking weaker than others
and energy prices, which have hammered households’ disposable incomes. Lockdowns in China are disrupting supply chains. And central banks are rapidly raising interest rates to tame inflation. Fears about the state of the world economy have jolted financial markets. In the past monthhave fallen by nearly a tenth. Risky assets including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies have taken a nasty blow. Economists are steadily downgrading their forecasts for global growth.
Consumers are likely to be able to carry on spending for a while, even as inflation cuts into purchasing power. Households across theare still sitting on roughly $4trn of savings accumulated during the pandemic, according to our estimates. And, contrary to what is commonly supposed, not all of that money is in the hands of the rich. In America the bank accounts of low-income families were still 65% fatter at the end of last year than in 2019.
Some countries do look weak. Goldman Sachs, another bank, produces a “current activity indicator”, a high-frequency measure of economic growth based on a combination of surveys and official data. The Russian economy has sharply slowed since Western countries slapped on sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine. And in China, where the government’s zero-covid strategy has led to the strictest lockdowns since early 2020, the economy may well be shrinking .
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