Get ready for a soft GDP report
When the government releases new GDP data Thursday morning, it is likely to show weak economic growth — but for quirky reasons that don't matter much in terms of the outlook for the months ahead.Economic growth is slowing as the initial post-pandemic bounceback fades. But the underlying growth trend in the first three months of the year is likely to be stronger than the headlines suggest.The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m.
Any number lower than 2.3% would be the softest growth since mid-2020, when the pandemic recovery began.A major factor driving the softness is inventory adjustments. While companies were building their depleted inventories in the first quarter, early data suggests they did so less rapidly than in the fourth quarter, which in the arithmetic of GDP subtract from growth.
But inventory adjustments tend not to presage future economic activity. Consumer spending and business investment tend to be more self-sustaining and thus tell a more accurate story about the economy's underlying strength or weakness. Forecasters expect those to be strong.set to drag down the overall growth numbers is a widening trade deficit. That reflects a combination of import growth, reflecting strong domestic demand, and flatlining exports due to softness in the rest of the world.
Brasil Últimas Notícias, Brasil Manchetes
Similar News:Você também pode ler notícias semelhantes a esta que coletamos de outras fontes de notícias.
Climate change putting 4% of global GDP at risk, new study estimatesClimate change could see 4% of global annual economic output lost by 2050 and hit many poorer parts of the world disproportionately hard, a new study of 135 countries has estimated.
Consulte Mais informação »
China’s President Xi pushing to beat US in GDP growth despite covid lockdowns – WSJThe Wall Street Journal (WSJ) carried a story on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the discussions that “Chinese President Xi Jinping has told offi
Consulte Mais informação »
Investment Banks Slash Expectations for China's Economic Outlook — One Sees GDP Growth of Less Than 4%Several investment banks have cut their China growth forecasts as Covid lockdowns drag on in the economic hub of Shanghai.
Consulte Mais informação »
Morgan Stanley slashes its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.2%Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised down China’s 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.2%, in line with the downgrade by Bank of America and Nomura over the la
Consulte Mais informação »
US: Don't be surprised if real GDP growth in Q1 turns out to be negative – Wells FargoOn Thursday, the first estimate of US GDP growth will be released. Analysts at Wells Fargo, expect a 0.6% annualized growth rate. They point out that
Consulte Mais informação »
Morgan Stanley slashes its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.2%Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised down China’s 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.2%, in line with the downgrade by Bank of America and Nomura over the la
Consulte Mais informação »