$GBPUSD Bearish Trend May Continue -
Overall, the British Pound saw only temporary relief from the recent sell-off against the dollar and mostly in the wake of the slightly better-than-expected UK GDP report when it revealed economic growth of 0.5% for the month of May. It followed observations from a series of BoE rate-setters, including Deputy Governor David Ramsden, Governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Howe Bell, each of which suggested the increases could continue, if not bigger or faster. in raising the bank rate.
“The new week comes with the release of UK CPI, Jobs and PMIs which will shape the outlook ahead of the BoE’s policy decision in August as it looks highly likely that the bank will raise interest rates by as much as 50 bps - The data could increase speculation about a 75 bps hike. However, we believe the country's cost-of-living crisis will remain with the BoE in the second half of the year.
While the UK GDP figure surprised the markets, many economists still expected an economic contraction for the second quarter and the pound's gains were in the wake of the short-term data, with the pound falling more rapidly than the dollar, which rose to new highs against many currencies. Andrew Goodwin, economist at Oxford Economics, says: “We think May's performance was interesting because there was one extra working day in that month. Monthly activity data is likely to remain highly volatile over the next few months, only stabilizing once we reach late summer.
Meanwhile, the US dollar gained in the wake of a large bullish US inflation surprise for the month of June and amid growing market concerns about the global economy. On the other hand, says Francesco Pesol, currency markets analyst at ING: “The cable appears in danger of moving to 1.1600-1.1700 in the coming days on the back of the strength of the US dollar.
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