GBP does not have to rally a lot more on a credible budget – ING GBPUSD EURGBP UnitedKingdom Banks
ber, analysts at ING struggle to see what upside there is for Sterling today. Positioning could be the wild card, however.“Investor views of UK fiscal credibility have largely returned to pre-Truss levels, where the 10-year German Bund-Gilt spread is now 115 bps and the UK's 5-year sovereign CDS has narrowed to 27 bps from 52 bps.
“We expect GBPUSD to be unable to hold any gains above 1.20 and prefer sub 1.15 levels before year-end. Equally,“The only thing going for Sterling is buy-side positioning. It is hard to see what Sterling positives the market could take from today's budget – but there is an outside risk that investors have some residual Sterling shorts to cover. Near-term outside risk is a very painful Sterling short-squeeze taking GBPUSD to 1.23. However, that squeeze should not last long.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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