Iran's leaders have promised to avenge the killing of General Qassem Soleim...
DUBAI - Iran’s leaders have promised to avenge the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, by the United States.
Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Khamenei must carefully calibrate the reaction. “A weak response risks losing face, an excessive response risks losing his head.” Tehran or its proxies could attack oil tankers in the Gulf and Red Sea, shipping routes for oil and other trade linking the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.A military confrontation or heightened tensions could disrupt shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil production passes. Any interruption could drive up oil prices sharply.
Iran has passed on weaponry and technical expertise to allies. Yemen’s Houthis have used Iran-made missiles and drones to bomb airports in Saudi Arabia. “Iran has no choice but to strike back and retaliate for assassination of Major General Soleimani,” he said. “But the Islamic Republic is patient and the timing and nature of that strike is not yet known to us.”In 1994, a member of the Lebanese movement Hezbollah bombed the Argentine Jewish Mutual Aid Society building in Buenos Aires, killing 85 people. Argentina blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the attack. They deny any responsibility.
“Iran and America have worked together in the past, in Afghanistan, Iraq and other places. They have common interests and common enemies. A military confrontation will be costly for both sides. But diplomacy can solve many problems and it is an option,” said a senior regional diplomat.
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