Despite a plethora of mini crises from sovereign debt trouble to flash crashes and trade wars, and a few bubbles in crypto and pot stocks, U.S. equity markets more than tripled this decade and valuations remained sane.
hat a difference a decade makes. At the start of 2010, unemployment in the United States was above 8%, euro zone economies from Greece to Italy were teetering on collapse, and global equity markets were suffering from a lost decade. Fear and uncertainty ruled the day. However, by the end of 2019, a handful of tech companies from Apple and Netflix to Google, Microsoft and Amazon had driven U.S. markets to one of the best ten-year stretches in history, and to record highs.
The S&P 500 Index has more than tripled in value in the last ten years, returning 13.5% annually, as corporate profits and investor animal spirits soared. Long Treasury bond rates have been cut in half from 4.65% to 2.35%, and the U.S. unemployment rate now stands at a rock bottom 3.6%. Over the last ten years, there have been occasional bubbles in everything from pot and crypto to fake meat stocks. There have also been Chinese stock frauds and a few bad actors like Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
Despite a preponderance of economic noise ranging from a debt crisis in Europe to the flash crash and China tariffs, the biggest driver of the current prosperity has been the flood of easy capital spurred on by Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Interest rates in the U.S. have been near 0% for the better part of the decade and in countries like Switzerland and Japan they have actually turned negative.
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