Friday's August retail sales is the last big economic report before the Fed meets, and it could be muddied by Amazon's July Prime Day sale.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists,, now see a decline in August retail sales, unlike most other economists. The BofA economists track aggregate sales data from Bank of America credit and debit cards.
"There are a couple of reasons. One is negative payback from Amazon Prime Day promotions and other retailers, who had summer promotions in July. On top of that, we've seen consumer sentiment deteriorate over the month," Song said. Some economists said that higher inflation data, in itself, muddies the picture for the Fed, since it has been looking for below normal inflation. But the Fed is still expected to move forward with rate cuts.
Tom Simons, chief money market economist at Jefferies, expects a 0.2% gain in retail sales and the same 0.2% gain, ex-autos.
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