'There are prospective motivations for this arrest, but none of them have anything to do with actual spying. The notion that Gershkovich is a spy does not stand up...[he] was likely arrested because he was simply too good at his job,' TomRtweets writes.
The Kremlin claimed that Gershkovich,"acting on the instructions of the [U.S. intelligence community], collected information constituting a state secret about the activities of one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex."Gershkovich was born to Russian parents, but he is an American journalist, not a CIA spy. What was he doing in Yekaterinburg? The BBC's excellent Russia service reports that he may have tried to visit the nearby Uralvagonzavod tank factory.
Other possible motives for this reporting trip could include the public spat between Prigozhin and the local region's governor. Responding to Prigozhin's accusation that regional authorities had not afforded honorable burial rites to Wagner personnel, the governor referenced Prigozhin's catering service past, suggesting that he focus on cookery instead. Tensions between Prigozhin and the Kremlin have also been growing as Wagner suffers heavy casualties in Ukraine.
This arrest also likely evinces Putin's sense that he can escalate against U.S. interests in a way that earns U.S. concessions rather than new costs. He may well have been encouraged by the Biden administration's decision to order a retreat of U.S. drone flights in response to Russia's downing of one such flight. But Putin clearly also sought a valuable replacement for Brittney Griner in terms of future prisoner exchanges.
Unfortunately, even as Putin's forces are being shredded in Ukraine, the U.S. has allowed him to believe he holds the strategic initiative.
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