The digital divide could bring a “high-tech” Downton Abbey, with the skilled elite lording it over the rest
about the future of work tends to divide commentators into two camps. The optimistic case is that technology may cause temporary disruption but will ultimately result in economic growth and thus more jobs. Combine harvesters reduced the need for agricultural labourers and personal computers eliminated the typing pool, but the displaced workers found other jobs in the end.
* from the consultants at McKinsey veers towards the optimistic camp. It predicts that men and women will be roughly equally affected by automation over the next decade, with 21% of working males and 20% of females losing their jobs by 2030. In the developed world, McKinsey estimates that men will tend to lose machine-operating jobs and women will lose clerical and service roles. But new jobs will be created, if not necessarily for the same people.
How much of this low-paid work is the result of the gig economy? Not much so far; it represents about only 1% of American employment. But in their book, “Ghost Work”, Mary Gray and Siddharth Suri forecast that what they call “on-demand work” will reach 60% of the global workforce by 2055. They define this category to include those who work for temporary staffing agencies, have short-term contracts or who accept work from employers through websites or apps.
However, the new forms of employment have a plus side. Many workers in emerging markets relish the opportunity to work at home and at times of their choosing. They are only expecting to supplement their family’s other sources of income. On some platforms, workers are identified by a sequence of letters and numbers, meaning that they are free from discrimination on the grounds of age, religion or sex.
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