India's retail inflation likely sped up to a 16-month high of 6.35% in March, well above the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance band for a third straight month, in part due to a sustained rise in food prices, a Reuters poll found.
The full effect of the spike in crude oil and global energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February is not expected to appear in consumer prices until April as the pass-through to consumers at fuel pumps was delayed., as measured by the consumer price index , rose to 6.35% in March on an annual basis, from 6.07% in February. That would be the highest reading since November 2020.Forecasts for the data, due for release on April 12 around 1200 GMT, ranged between 6.
Food prices, which account for nearly half the inflation basket, are also expected to remain elevated as supply chain problems related to the Russia-Ukraine war disrupt global grain production, supply of edible oils and fertiliser exports. "Although there was a delay in the start of petrol price hikes post-state elections, retail prices have still risen by INR 6.5/ltr over the last 10 days of March," Chakraborty said.