Variety’s Oscars expert predicts the best supporting actor nominees: - Kodi Smit-McPhee, ThePowerOfTheDog - Troy Kotsur, CODA - Bradley Cooper, LicoricePizza - Ciarán Hinds, Belfast - Ben Affleck, TheTenderBar
: Trying to find the right balance of critical darling, SAG nominees and BAFTA selections has been difficult to gauge. The SAG NomCom also responded well to Bradley Cooper , despite his minimal screen time, and considering how well the Paul Thomas Anderson film is expected to do with the Academy, he feels like a “safer” bet. Of course, he’s also helped by “Nightmare Alley,” in which he’s competing in a very stacked lead actor category. and Jared Leto .
So the question becomes – is the half like Leto’s performance in “Gucci” more than the pocket of voters enamored with Affleck? I gave the slight edge to Affleck. And then there’s the issue with the men from “Belfast.” There’s a chance we see both Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds in the lineup, but I have to give the slight edge to the latter because I believe there’s a good chance he was in the top two with the BAFTA nominees, which guaranteed his nom. I also think the two are probably pulling votes away from each other.
Last week we referenced the possibility of Jesse Plemons joining his co-star like Jennifer Tilly joined Dianne Wiest for “Bullets over Broadway” . The comparison no longer remains relevant for the now BAFTA-nominated Plemons because Tilly made it in with no prior precursor support, but his nomination is still very possible.
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