Expectations for a rate cut by end of October have jumped to 60%, based on trading in the fed fund futures market. Yesterday that was at 40%.
Investors are betting a weak September Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report, published Tuesday, will make it more likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the third straight policy meeting at the end of October.
Many others, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, thought it could be appropriate for the Fed to hold policy steady. “The risk is this weakness spills over into the services sector, where the majority of hiring takes place,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. Ryan thinks the Fed will cut interest rates three more times, by a quarter-point in October, December and the first-quarter.
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