Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence delivered a fine line last week, but he has only one game inside the top 12 at the position. Thankfully for his Week 6 outlook, that one game came in Week 1 against the Colts — his opponent this week. Indy has given up the sixth-highest passing success rate (50.8%) this season, penciling in Lawrence as an easy QB1.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence passes the ball during an NFL football game between Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023. Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss runs past Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard, center, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, right, during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, in Indianapolis.
— Trevor Lawrence delivered a fine line last week, but he has only one game inside the top 12 at the position. Thankfully for his Week 6 outlook, that one game came in Week 1 against the Colts — his opponent this week. Indy has given up the sixth-highest passing success rate this season, penciling in Lawrence as an easy QB1.
— Dak Prescott is the QB21 five weeks into the season — a far cry from his QB10 average draft position. His 6.6 aDOT and 45% success rate leave a lot to be desired, but Dallas has yet to play a close game. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points and the seventh-highest EPA per drop-back, so the matchup is there. Just don’t expect too much from an offense that ranks 25th in both pass rate and pass rate over expectation .
— Jonathan Taylor & Zack Moss look as if they’ll be splitting carries for the time being. Moss stole the show in Taylor’s debut, dominating the rush share and the snap share . He ended up delivering the best fantasy performance of his career, a 32.5-point outing that’s even more impressive considering how stout the Titans had been against the run.
— Jerome Ford is a buy low, but you can probably wait a week and buy even lower. He’s borderline unstartable this week against the 49ers — though it’s worth noting San Francisco is middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. The guaranteed volume puts Ford on the FLEX radar, but he’s an easy sit if Deshaun Watson gets ruled out.
— Jeff Wilson will be activated off IR this week — just as Devon Achane landed on IR. Wilson turned in a pair of top-12 finishes upon arriving in Miami midway through last season and averaged 9.3 points per game over the final three weeks. Miami is perhaps the most fantasy-friendly offense in the NFL, putting Wilson on the FLEX radar if he’s active.— Dameon Pierce . Through five weeks, Pierce has registered a -0.31 rushing EPA per carry to go along with a 20.
— DeAndre Hopkins delivered his best game with the Titans last week. Hopkins had a 30.3% target share en route to 18 fantasy points. Although it marked just the second time this season Hopkins eclipsed double-digit points, he’s in the top 10 with a 29.3% target share for the season. Baltimore has been a top-five pass defense by adjusted fantasy points allowed and EPA, but Hopkins’ steady volume keeps him in the WR3 conversation.
— Josh Downs continues to produce despite only playing the third-most snaps among Colts wideouts. Downs had his best game as a pro in Week 5, finishing as the WR18 and commanding a 25.0% target share. He had 12 targets in Gardner Minshew’s lone prior start this season and should again be busy against a Jags defense allowing the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target .
— K.J. Osborn has an opportunity to take on a bigger role with Justin Jefferson out. While Jordan Addison will likely generate more buzz, Osborn has more experience and, more importantly, has run more routes and played more snaps than Addison in every game this season. The two tied with a team-high 19.6% target share last week, so there will be plenty of work to go around against the Bears secondary. He’s a WR3 with upside.
— Terry McLaurin had just a 10.4% target share despite Sam Howell throwing the ball 51 times last week. McLaurin finished with 6.9 fantasy points, and he’s now been held under 7.5 points in three of five games this season. As Washington’s primary perimeter option, he’ll likely see plenty of Terrell this week. Keep him on your bench.
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