Have you ever wondered whether certain months are better or worse for stock markets? While we can identify meaningful seasonality, by itself, it is a poor predictor of past performance.
Now let us switch to European indices. It should be noted that the data is not as comprehensive as Wall Street, only going back to 1988. This means that compared to the Dow Jones and S&P 500, we have almost half the number of observations for the DAX 40 , FTSE 100 and CAC 40 .
Meanwhile, June, August and September have consistently been some of the worst months, averaging -0.67%, -1.23% and -1.57%, respectively. These are all statistically significant. As such, it seems you can find more weak months for this corner of global stock exchanges. Much like with Wall Street and European indices, April appears to have consistently and significantly been the best month for these APAC stock markets. The Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index and ASX 200 averaged about 2% over the years.
Like with other markets, the average goodness of fit was approximately 4%. Once again, while we can identify meaningful seasonality, by itself it did not do a good job of explaining how these markets performed in April, August and September over the years.
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