After seven consecutive above-average hurricane seasons, some meteorologists are now upping their forecasts for the 2023 Atlantic season, expecting increased odds of above-average activity.
Unnamed subtropical storm.
On Jan. 16, the National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook, highlighting a suspicious feature over the open Atlantic but indicating that it would not develop. It was a pinched-off pocket of thunderstorms at the core of a massive sprawling mid-latitude low-pressure system — the same that prompted wind warnings in Nova Scotia and dropped 3.5 inches of snow in Boston. That convection, or thunderstorm activity, took on a life of its own.
The combination of Bret and Cindy marked the first time on record two storms formed in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Caribbean during June.At present, the Atlantic is record warm. That’s because of a nudge from climate change, and alsoIn June, the Bermuda High — a semi-stagnant ridge of high pressure that spans from Bermuda to the Azores — weakened markedly. The weakening of the high reduced easterly trade winds over the tropical belt in the Atlantic.
The weaker winds also probably reduced the transport of sun-blocking plumes of Saharan dust, which may have otherwise slowed the warming of the ocean. The abnormally warm waters could help fuel any disturbances that transit the Atlantic in the coming weeks. But for the moment, the Hurricane Center has not identified any disturbances that might develop over the next seven days.
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