Exercise was a profitable pandemic bet, but as Spencerjakab explains, those gains are shrinking WSJWhatsNow
of home exercise equipment, from bikes to weights to ellipticals, under brands such as Bowflex and Schwinn. Investors who were quick enough to pounce on the stock’s two-thirds off sale last March could have made as much as 25 times their money.
Now that the world has opened up, the alarming spread of the Delta variant notwithstanding, it would seem thatmight be gym chain Planet Fitness. Its shares surged by 16% on the day last November when Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective while those of Peloton fell more than 20%. It was hit hard early in the pandemic, with all of its U.S.
Could all three be attractive at these prices? Taking some numbers from the companies at face value, that is one possible conclusion. For example, Nautilus Chief Executive Jim Barr says his company’s studies indicate between 12% and 30% of commercial gym goers will never go back, opting to stay fit at home. And while that would seem to be bad news for Planet Fitness, that company reports that its competitors fared far worse than it did during the pandemic, with more than a fifth of U.S.
Do an exercise in valuation, though, and suddenly none of the fitness-related stocks look very muscular, whether or not Covid-19 lingers. Peloton’s sales, for example, are expected to grow by 32% this fiscal year, according to analysts polled by FactSet, slowing thereafter, but earnings estimates have been sliding sharply for fiscal 2022 and 2023.
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