The coronavirus that spread from a seafood market in Wuhan, China to infect tens...
BOSTON/WASHINGTON - The coronavirus that spread from a seafood market in Wuhan, China to infect tens of thousands has shuttered businesses, grounded flights and killed over 1,000 people so far, mostly in China.
Most believe China faces a short but sharper economic shock than originally thought, one that will be felt around the world. Expectations of how harsh the impact will be vary widely, however. Health professionals and economists say opaque Chinese data and lack of precedent hinder clear estimates. Analysts from S&P, meanwhile, estimated Tuesday that the virus could lower China’s GDP growth to 5.0% this year, with a peak effect in the first quarter before a rebound begins in the third quarter.
Any forecasts are also complicated by the fact that Beijing has a history of closely managing China’s economy to hit specific targets, and there were already doubts whether China’s economy could reach 6% growth this year. “It’s a culture that shoots the messenger. Because of the bureaucracy, local officials are afraid to say anything,” she said.
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