Nuclear arsenals remain large enough to fundamentally shift the Earth system in the blink of an eye.
How nuclear war could ice over the Baltic Sea
Worse, the sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures would decimate marine algae, the foundation of the marine food web, creating a years-long ocean famine. While the whole ocean would be affected, the worst effects would be concentrated at higher latitudes, including all of Europe and especially in the Baltic states, where ocean light is already in short supply.
Ten years after the conflicts, global marine productivity recovered and even overshot its initial state. This occurs because enduring changes to ocean circulation push nutrients up to the surface from depth. Once the soot clears and light recovers, phytoplankton can use these nutrients to grow rapidly.
Why would the ocean be so slow to recover from a nuclear conflict? The water heats and cools very slowly, and the ocean is strongly stratified with different water masses layered on top of each other. This gives the ocean a much longer “memory” than the atmosphere. Once disturbed, many changes are either not reversible on human timescales or are unlikely to return to their initial state.
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