EURUSD pushes lower following strong US PMI report. Traders eye 75 bps FOMC rate hike and Fed guidance. Heavy economic calendar may put stress on EURUSD bulls.
The EURUSD rate has put in a noticeable shift in direction following last week’s European Central Bank meeting. After rallying to just short of 1.01, the market perceived ECB President Christine Lagarde to be relatively dovish, despite pledging further rate hikes. This has seen the market significantly reprice the ECB’s terminal rate, which has acted as an anchor on EURUSD for the last few sessions.
Last week’s rate hike was the second 75 basis point increase in a row, as the European Union continues to battle inflation that remains both elevated and persistent. Despite these price pressures, the ECB indicated that monetary policy decisions will continue to be “data dependent.” Perhaps more notably, there was a glaring change in the policy statement that may have caused the sharp pivot lower in EURUSD. The ECB statement had previously said that the Governing Council expects to raise rates further “over the next several meetings,” but the statement now reads that the Governing Council expects to “raise rates further.” While not said explicitly, this may be a subtle hint that an ECB pivot is closer than previously thought.
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