EURUSD moves back into longs following sharp breakout – by fx_ross EURUSD Technical Analysis DollarIndex US Elections
will be critical. It will be scrutinized and analysts at TD Securities suggested that Core prices likely slowed modestly in October but to a still strong 0.4% MoM pace.'' All told, our MoM forecasts imply 7.9%/6.5% YoY for total/core prices.
'A below consensus print is likely to help push the pricing for the terminal funds rate modestly lower, likely bull steepening the curve in the process,'' analysts at TD Securities argued. ''The risk of a lower reading is why we took profit on our 2s10s curve steepener last week and went long 10y Treasuries, which we viewed as attractive,'' they said.
''The positive sentiment surrounding the EUR in late October and into the first day of November reflects the impact of both the 75 bps rate hike from thelast month and the relief that came from the falling back of European gas prices in October. Helped also by a broadly softer greenback in recent days, EUR/USD is currently testing parity and pushing up against its 100 day sma. A break above could encourage more buyers in the near term.
''However, in our view, fundamentals are still bias towards further downside pressure for the currency pair in the coming months, meaning we would view rallies as an opportunity to sell. In particular we don’t see the EUR as being priced for the impact of winter 2023 and what a prolonged period of expensive energy may mean for the German business model, Europe’s trade and current account balances and the value of the EUR.
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