EUR/USD bulls move in ahead of the FOMC minutes – by fx_ross EURUSD Currencies DollarIndex Fed ECB
Eurozone and US data were solid and inflation risks are in vogue.
The US Dollar rose against all G10 except sterling while EUR/USD was choppy but ultimately 40 pips lower to 1.0637. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0655 and has stuck to a narrow range of 1.0655/42 so far. PMIs showed an outperformance in services which rose to 53.0 . However, manufacturing fell to 48.5 , the composite rose to 52.3 . They explained that the ZEW Survey saw gains in both expectations and current conditions for Germany and the Eurozone.
The analysts noted that the WIRP suggests 25 bp hikes in March, May, and June that takes Fed Funds to 5.25-5.50%. ''Given how strong the data have been recently, we see growing risks of a fourth 25 bp hike that takes us up to 5.50-5.75%, though that is not being priced in yet. This should eventually change,'' the analysts said.
''Strangely enough, an easing cycle is still expected to begin in Q4 but at much lower odds. Eventually, it should be totally priced out into 2024 in the next stage of Looking ahead, the next major catalyst will be the Federal Reserve's release of the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday, which will give traders a glimpse of how high officials are projecting interest ''Fed speak before the Feb FOMC meeting and the presser that followed pointed to a more dovish Fed stance.
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