“By continuing to target civilians in Idlib, Russia aims to create new waves of displacement towards the north and pressure Turkey” Opinion | Nawaroliver
On March 5, 2020, Russia and Turkey signed a ceasefire agreement in Syria’s Idlib that included Russian and Turkish patrols along the key M4 highway. Since then, opposition held-areas in Idlib and Aleppo have been subjected to artillery and raids by the regime and Russia.
It was expected that the attacks would slow down after those meetings. On the contrary, the attacks increased significantly and the regime and Moscow began targeting different sites, most of which were residential and infrastructure sites. It is therefore worth taking a closer look at Russia’s air strike strategy and its goals for the region. Russia and the regime conducted 34 attacks during the month of May, primarily targeting civilians.
, which Moscow aimed to block. There were also indications that there could be new waves of displacement, which it could use to pressure other actors. the use of humanitarian border crossings into Syria, and Russia and the regime increased their attacks, conducting 114 strikes and over 18 raids on civilian and civil defence locations in northern Idlib, killing more than 45 civilians. 81 percent of the targeted locations were within the de-escalation zone.
First, the heavy military presence of the Turkish Army and Syrian National Army in the Jabal al Zawiya region in the vicinity of the M4 international road makes it a risky endeavour. Second, Jabal Al Zawiya is a mountainous region that is difficult to navigate. Finally, there isn’t enough manpower for a ground operation in the region, as it would require pulling pro-regime troops out of the ongoing battles against Daesh cells in the Syrian Desert .
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