Twice as tall as the waves around them, these giant swells can appear suddenly and seemingly out of nowhere. Here's how scientists are developing ways to predict them before they strike
to predict extreme conditions in the ocean at a specific place and time. It’s a useful tool to help mariners steer clear of dangerous seas, but it may not be enough to protect them from a rogue wave that appears out of the blue.
“If you just look at the absolute most efficient way of forming these waves, it very nicely agrees with the actual observed ones,” says Tobias Grafke, a mathematician at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom.in wave channels, measured results against real-time wave observations, and found the method could predict rogue waves in both settings surprisingly well.
“The more complex these [equations] are, the better the prediction, the higher the computation effort and time,” Chabchoub says. “It is therefore a trade-off between accuracy and time to obtain useful results.”real-time wave prediction technology, but the newer approaches need to be tested in real-life settings—a challenge given the rarity of rogue waves. In many cases, the computation process needs to be ramped up to match the speed of the waves.
To predict a rogue wave, scientists would need a radar system to continuously measure waves near a boat, so they could run data through a mathematical model that paints a picture of the ocean’s surface at that moment. A model that calculates a new surface every five minutes would offer a relatively accurate prediction of how waves would evolve in the next several minutes.
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