Emerging market currencies are expected to rise a bit further in coming months as a sliding U.S. dollar offsets domestic worries about large economic imbalances stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, a Reuters poll showed.
From a peak reached early in the year, the emerging markets currency index, heavily weighted toward China given the size of its economy, weakened over 7% to hit a 2020 low in late March.
“Some of these risks include a more neutral USD, a pick-up in U.S.-China tension ahead of the U.S. election, still rising COVID-19 cases across EM and the potential for new outbreaks as we approach autumn.” However, nearly two-thirds of FX strategists who answered an additional question, 38 of 62, said the greenback’s weakening trend would last less than a year. The remaining 24 said it would last for more than a year.
China was the world’s first major economy to declare a return to growth in the second quarter after a deep slump at the start of the year as lockdown restrictions were eased after the country reported fewer coronavirus cases.
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