Elon Musk's superpower has been staying ahead of the curve. But his latest moves with Twitter and Tesla prove he's woefully behind the times — and it could cost him everything.
Musk built his billionaire reputation as an early mover — early to see the potential of mass-producing electric cars or reusable rockets. But now that it appears he'll have to honor his agreement to buy Twitter, it's clear that Musk has fallen behind the times on two of his biggest bets. The survival of his empire will depend on whether he can bring new light to parts of the market that have gone dark.
The first of these bets is Twitter. During the pandemic, tech stocks — including social-media companies — were flying high. Buoyed by low interest rates and investors willing to bet on the future, Twitter's stock hit an all-time high in late 2021. But since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in early 2022, the stock market has gotten smashed, and social-media stocks have been some of the hardest hit.
Musk — hardly the most liquid billionaire in the world — will have to get cash from somewhere, and the most obvious place is from selling parts of his massive stake in Tesla. The timing for that is all wrong as well. Musk's second behind-the-times bet is the Chinese consumer. Beijing has been extremely supportive of electric vehicles, and two years ago the Chinese consumer was still seen as a sure bet in corporate boardrooms around the world. The pandemic changed that. Chinese President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID lockdown policy has ravaged the economy, which was already slowing under the strain of a deflating property bubble.
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