Oil prices will not average more than $80 per barrel in the second half of this year, despite the most recent production cut announced by Saudi Arabia, the U.S. EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released this week.
At Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ producers decided to extend their crude oil production cuts through 2024, while Saudi Arabia said it would voluntarily in July to around 9 million bpd. The Saudi cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said.
Oil inventories will drop slightly next year, compared to last month’s STEO that forecast inventory growth of 300,000 bpd for 2024.But oil is not expected to rally, and prices will average $79 per barrel in the second half of 2023, which is $1 a barrel higher than in May’s STEO estimate. The 2024 oil price forecast was raised to an average of $84 per barrel, up by $9 per barrel compared to last month’s assessment.
The latest forecasts assume U.S. GDP growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024, which is down from last month’s forecast of 1.6% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, based on the S&P Global macroeconomic model for the U.S. economy and EIA’s energy price forecasts.
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