A hard landing for the economy is unlikely, said this economist who pioneered the use of 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread to predict recession. Here’s why he thinks the indicator he invented may be sending a “false signal.”
For months, the bond market has flashed multiple warnings that a U.S. recession could be on the way, a view that many in financial markets have finally accepted.
The surprising conclusion from Harvey, whose 1986 dissertation at the University of Chicago linked the difference between longer- and shorter-term interest rates to future U.S. economic growth, comes at a time when the broader financial market has been fretting about a possible economic downturn in 2023.
The spread between rates on the 3-month bill TMUBMUSD03M, 4.303% and 10-year note has been negative for almost two months — a reflection of a 10-year rate trading well below its 3-month counterpart — and was around minus 61 basis points on Tuesday. Such inversions have preceded eight out of the past eight recessions.
“We’re in a period of slow growth, which is consistent with the model, but as far as recession, I’m skeptical of that. A hard landing is unlikely,” he said via phone, though he didn’t rule out the possibility of a mild downturn. “What I’m saying is straightforward. This is a valuable indicator and I believe it is accurate in forecasting slowing economic growth. In terms of a hard landing, you need to look at other information.
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