This Duke professor says a coronavirus vaccine will end the U.S. downturn, and the positive yield curve is an upbeat sign.
Last summer, when the U.S. had just notched a decade of economic recovery and unemployment stood at 3.7%, Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, predicted a recession for 2020 or early 2021.
He doesn’t anticipate the V-shaped recovery that Wall Street touted a few weeks ago. “I think it's more what I call the ‘skinny U,’ because I do believe that we will have a vaccine by the first quarter [of 2021],” he said. — Campbell Harvey Harvey’s recession call was more pessimistic than most forecasters at the time, who saw no recession for this year, either. Would the recession have happened without the pandemic?
Harvey adds that he can see some green shoots just in time for winter, as coronavirus treatments emerge and the world gets closer to testing and deploying a vaccine. “A vaccine is the solution in terms of reducing all of the uncertainty. A vaccine means ‘all clear,’” he said. ”If we've got some pharmacological solution that reduces the risk of death, that's also incredibly helpful.”
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