The S&P 500 rolling over in recent trade has it moving towards the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern dating to early September. Get your market update from PaulRobinsonFX here:
head-and-shoulders looks very similar to the S&P 500’s. The NDX is currently testing the low from January, and on a break will have the neckline squarely in play. The measured move target for the NDX is down to around 11k. That would mean the NDX lost ~34% off the 2021 high.
But again, before we put the cart before the horse, the neckline needs to break first. The same outlook holds for the NDX as it does with the SPX when it comes to the neckline. It’s support until it isn’t.is testing a key level right now that runs back to the spring of last year. Right around 33k holds the key for what has developed into a broadening top.
If we see support break this will officially trigger the pattern and should set off a large decline. This would be consistent with what we are seeing in the broader market and NDX. We may first see a bounce off support before selling off, but it looks increasingly like we will ultimately see lower levels.
The Dow has held up better than the SPX and NDX, but as noted not long ago that will change if we go into full-on bear mode. It is likely not to matter whether it is growth or value, nearly all stocks will get sold during a strong risk-off event.Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking
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