Donald Trump is very likely to be the Republican nominee

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Donald Trump is very likely to be the Republican nominee
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  • 📰 TheEconomist
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“The 2024 election will determine whether we can keep our Republic or whether America has succumbed to the dark forces of tyranny,” a Trump campaign email read. Those who accept that these are the stakes will probably overlook his innumerable flaws

If you decided to pay less attention to Mr Trump after he lost in 2020, to preserve your sanity, you may be wondering how this can be the case. Parties do not usually stick with losers. Mr Trump led the Republicans to defeats in the 2018 midterm and the 2020 presidential elections. After he encouraged his supporters to “stop the steal”, some of them broke into Congress, with the result that one police officer died of a stroke and four committed suicide.

There are still Republican voters who would like an alternative—his 58% poll share means that close to half of primary voters must be open to choosing someone else. Yet the difficulties of co-ordinating the opposition to Mr Trump are daunting. People close to the Trump campaign say privately that the more candidates who enter the primary, dividing the field, the better for their candidate.

You might think that, at this point, voters would abandon Mr Trump in large numbers. Maybe. But when, earlier this year, a jury found that he had sexually abused a woman 30 years ago, the verdict had no measurable effect on his poll numbers. Mr Trump, it turns out, is adept at persuading Republican voters that he is the real victim. Democrats, and plenty of America’s allies, think Mr Trump is a threat to democracy .

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