Northern Triangle countries are “doing absolutely nothing” to prevent emigration, Donald Trump complains
of children from Central America’s Northern Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras—turned up at the United States’ southern border. President Barack Obama convinced a Republican-controlled Congress to double American aid to the region to reduce the violence and poverty that help cause mass migration. Now it has surged again, but Mr Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, has favoured a different tack.
They are now especially active in impoverished rural Guatemala, which has been hurt by drought and low coffee prices. A new smuggling network packs Guatemalans into buses, which take them to the American border in days. Half of the families caught there are Guatemalan. Most are seeking asylum. They are not single men trying to cross illegally. So “coyotes”, as smugglers are called, have no need to sneak them into the United States.
Mr Trump’s aid cut-off is a blunt instrument. It hurts El Salvador, home to 37% of families with children apprehended in 2016 but only 9% of them this year, as much as the other two countries. It ends financial support for security forces and police battling drug-trafficking to the United States. Mr Trump has not made clear what governments might do to restart the aid flow.
Administrators of aid say its goal was to strengthen things like law enforcement, employment and tax collection, which is a slow process. Aid becomes ever more effective over time as lessons are learnt, says Marcela Escobari, an American aid official under Mr Obama. Continuity matters. Plan Colombia helped bring peace to that country because it was sustained for 15 years without cuts, Ms Escobari says.
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