Nvidia is about to launch its next-gen RTX4090 graphics card, and although it's fair to worry about another GPUshortage, the card probably won't cause one.
We’re sitting on the edge of Nvidia GTC, where it’s all but confirmed the company will launch its next-gen RTX 4090 graphics card. The last time we were in this situation, almost two years ago to the day, Nvidia’s launch kicked off what would become the worst GPU shortage we’ve ever seen, and it’s fair if you’re nervous we might be caught in that situation again.
The chip shortage, which eventually lead to the GPU shortage, has mostly subsided. Supply chain issues haven’t been completely solved, but there are a lot of indications that there’s an excess supply of chips and not enough demand for them. Nvidia hinted at this fact in its most recent earnings call, saying that it has “excess inventory” of RTX 30-series graphics cards and would start slashing prices to sell them off. We’re seeing the effects of that now.
Switching partners Although the pandemic certainly worsened the GPU shortage, it wasn’t the root cause. Nvidia’s issues in the previous generation started with Samsung. RTX 30-series graphics cards use Samsung’s 8nm node, and reports shortly after the launch of these cards said that Samsung had a higher rate of defects than it anticipated.
The fateful ‘merge’ Manufacturing issues caused the GPU shortage, but crypto extended it. In particular, Ethereum extended it. Although Bitcoin steals the limelight, the Ethereum blockchain is where the majority of GPU mining took place throughout the shortage — around 25% of all GPU sales during the shortage went to Ethereum miners according to one estimate.
Now that the gavel is down, it’s much easier to be confident in upcoming GPU supply. Even if there are shortages, it’s unlikely that another boom in crypto will prolong and worsen the shortage, which is what we saw in 2020 and briefly toward the end of 2017.
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