After a recent spill, the dollar looks a bit rudderless, waiting for direction on U.S. monetary policy, according to foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters who predicted the currency will have ceded more ground 12 months from now.
Having fallen from a 15-week high set a fortnight ago, the dollar is still up over 2% for the year, although that gain is expected to be erased within 12 months."The base presumption is...fairly rangebound from here, but it entirely depends on what we see happening in terms of fiscal or monetary policy," said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. "This is where FX forecasting becomes something of a joke: you're forecasting one thing based on another thing.
When asked how confident they were in that weaker dollar outlook, a strong majority of 39 of 62 - over 60% - said they were not confident or not at all confident. The remaining 23 said they were either confident or very confident. While the latest positioning data showed net dollar longs rising to their highest level since early March 2020, the currency is down about 1% from last Monday.
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