'Russia's great disadvantage in Libya, unlike in Syria, is the fact that it supports an internationally unrecognised warlord who does not even have authority over the oil that is in its control areas.' Opinion | Ozkok_A
The Syrian regime's new offensive on the east of the opposition-held Idlib province and the growing presence of Russian mercenaries from theon the front line of the Libyan LNA militia led by warlord Khalifa Haftar have raised question marks in Ankara about Moscow's true intentions as a party to the conflict.
If Turkish troops truly landed in Libya, Khalifa Haftar's fantasy of being an omnipotent force will receive a serious battering. This would however mean a maximum escalation of a conflict which, from a Turkish perspective, should be settled diplomatically., the GNA government in Tripoli documented between 600 and 800 Russian mercenaries in the ranks of Haftar's LNA militia.
This is because Ankara makes it difficult for Russia to achieve three important goals in Libya. Russia wants them to unite under one hat in order to gain influence on Libya's military, political and ultimately energy policy issues.
Semenov summarised in his recent article that despite its penchant for supporting Haftar, Moscow is hedging its bets by maintaining its relations with Tripoli, notably through contracts signed by Russian oil and gas companies with the Libyan NOC in December. Officially, Russia therefore follows the "principle of equidistance with all actors" in Libya. Russia does not proceed according to the principle of black and white thinking, as many experts with memories of the Soviet Union often try to suggest. On the contrary, Russia puts its interests first and acts pragmatically.
Russia's main problem with Turkey is that it is unwilling to legitimise a warlord like Haftar, who is also supported by France, Egypt's coup-generated president Abdelfattah al Sisi and the United Arab Emirates - all regional opponents of Turkey. Turkish sovereignty in the maritime border conflict with Greece is also linked to the events in Tripoli.
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