Our analysis of eight decades-worth of data suggests congressional retirements do not always lead to losses at the ballot box
IN 2018, as America prepared to hold mid-term congressional elections, Republicans were running for the exits. A total of 37 GOP Congress members—34 in the House of Representatives and three in the Senate—stepped down from their posts in the months leading up to election day. Democrats went on to pick up 40 seats in the House. With just over a year until the 2020 presidential contest, Republicans are once again throwing in the towel.
In presidential election years, however, this relationship disappears . In 1992, for example, when 41 Democrats and 24 Republican House members retired from office, giving Republicans a 17-seat advantage, the GOP picked up only nine extra congressional districts. In the 1938 mid-terms, by contrast, Republicans went into election day with a similar advantage and netted 81 new seats.Republican retirements from Congress may be a poor indicator of the party’s fate in next year’s elections.
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