“Since 2018, the overall share of NPP voters has undergone the sharpest reversal in 60 years of registration data.”
The announcement five years ago from California’s elections chief was sobering: Voters registering with no political party had edged out Republicans for the first time — relegating the GOP of Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower and Abraham Lincoln to third place in the Golden State and stirring speculation that traditional party structures were on their way to irrelevance.
“California’s version of automatic voter registration is playing a big role in this shift,” PPIC policy director Eric McGhee wrote in his July 17 analysis of the DMV registration option. McGhee said that the automatic voter registration electronic interface at the DMV initially “encouraged” no-party registration by prominently displaying that option on the touch-screen, while those who wanted a political party had to select another screen for a list.
However, McGhee acknowledged that doesn’t fully explain the shift away from independent voting. New voters had historically driven growth in independent registration, but that has slowed even among new registrants who don’t go through the DMV, he said. Dan Schnur, who teaches political science at USC and UC Berkeley, agreed that the DMV makes it harder to register independent of a party.“Before 2016, you could shrug your shoulders and say ‘I can’t stand either party, what’s the difference?'” Schnur said. “Trump showed there’s a difference, and they responded accordingly. Trump is a deeply polarizing person. He drove more people into the Democratic Party, but also more people into the Republican Party.
California’s 2018 no-party preference peak came during the presidency of Donald Trump, whose unpopularity in the state prompted some centrist Republicans to register independent. But the state’s GOP registration climbed over no party preference as Trump unsuccessfully sought reelection. While Trump remains the top Republican for the presidential nomination in polls, independent registration in the state continues to wane.
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