Deja vu — At least eight Democratic candidates have announced challenges to House Republican incumbents they lost to in 2022, setting the stage for several tight races that could once again determine which party will control the lower chamber.
At least eight Democratic candidates have announced challenges to Republican incumbents they lost to in 2022, setting the stage for several tight races that could once again determine which party will control the lower chamber. Democrats are especially targeting GOP lawmakers in races that are expected to be competitive in 2024, pointing to the party's better-than-expected performance during the midterm cycle as evidence of upward momentum coming into play next year.
Frisch has already proven to be a strong contender heading into the next election cycle, reporting a massive $2.6 million fundraising haul for the second quarter. That number marks the “largest quarterly fundraising for a U.S. House challenger in the year before an election” except for special elections or self-funded campaigns, according to Frisch’s campaign.
Rep. David Valadao may also face a rematch if Democrat Rudy Salas, who only lost by 3 points in 2022, decides to enter the race. Salas has not yet made an announcement on whether he plans to run, but national Republicans say they are looking at the former state representative as a likely challenger after he filed his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission in December.
At least one other toss-up race could feature a rematch next year: Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points in 2022, setting the stage for a brutal rematch if the two were to face off again in 2024. However, Republicans have expressed confidence in their ability to fend off any rematches and maintain those seats heading into 2024.
However, Democrats fared far better than initially expected, giving the party hope it can make significant gains next year. Presidential elections also motivate higher turnout than midterm elections, which could benefit Democrats after increased turnout helped boost its strength during the 2020 and 2022 cycles.
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