The deadly New York helicopter crash should serve as a warning for the increasing number of companies working on electric air taxis
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Consulting and accounting giant Deloitte earlier this year issued a detailed report on the emerging eVTOL industry’s challenges and potential. It posits that the market for such vehicles will go from quite literally $0 today to $1 billion by 2025 and, more notably, to $13.8 billion by the year 2040. Others have suggested the market will reach $17 billion or more by 2045, just over 25 years from today.
And what laws will govern their usage, certification, manufacturing standards and pilot training and operational standards? If the history of federal bureaucracies like the Federal Aviation Administration is any guide, all that will get sorted out, but it’ll take years, not months to do so. And that the weather in New York on Monday afternoon was dreary, with a steady rain falling and strong winds, doesn’t help either. Those are far from ideal conditions for rotary wing flight. But helicopters were operating in those conditions on Monday, and likely would be operating in similar conditions anywhere else from time to time. So too would eVTOL aircraft.
Comparisons between the safety of helicopters and fixed wing planes are made even more fuzzy by the fact that helicopters often are used in high risk operating conditions like search-and-rescue missions, bad weather, and congested, low-altitude urban environments with tall buildings and other obstructions. They also are rarely flown under the direct control of FAA Air Traffic Controllers.
Rushing to the market, as we’ve learned the hard way over and over in the 116 years since the Wright Brothers’ first flight at Kitty Hawk, N.C., can have horrendous unintended consequences. Yet these days, with probably several billion dollars already invested in the development of eVTOL designs, there’s immense pressure on those trying to build such aircraft and be among the early winners.
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