A severe drought that has led to near-famine conditions in the Horn of Africa would not have happened without the influence of climate change, a new analysis finds
Year after year after year the life-sustaining seasonal rains in the Horn of Africa have simply failed to fall. Heat has scorched the soils dry. Crops have shriveled up. Millions of livestock have died. Millions of people face severe food shortages, and several hundred thousand are on the verge of starving to death.
WWA researchers analyze events by looking for trends in meteorological observations over time and using computer models to compare today’s climate with one without the 1.2-degree-Celsius temperature rise the world has experienced since the late 19th century. In this case of this drought, the analysis found that climate change played a major role in increased evaporation because higher temperatures caused soils and plants to dry out much more quickly.
The results “seem very reasonable,” says Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who researches drought but was not involved in the new analysis. He cautioned that this is “particularly challenging region of the world” to investigate in this kind of study, however, because of a relative sparseness of meteorological data and the complex climatology of the area.
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