Using numbers from two space-based-systems, we have calculated the intensity of fighting and degree of physical destruction in every corner of the country
, an American rocket system, was a turning point. The share of military fires in Russian-held areas rose from 26% in the two previous months to 50% in the two subsequent ones. Many other factors also contributed to Russian losses, but Ukraine has clearly used the rockets extensively.
Russian artillery probably accounts for most war-related fires in Ukrainian-held territory. Additional explosions resulted from attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, and occasional strikes on distant targets using missiles or drone barrages. The data suggest that Russia has exacted revenge on civilians for the Ukrainian army’s successes. When Russia has lost territory, military fires in the following month outside areas it controls have been unusually concentrated in cities.
To assess how much damage Russian strikes have done, Ollie Ballinger of University College London has usedto categorise every building in Ukraine as probably damaged or not. Sentinel-1 passes over Ukraine at least twice every 12 days. To make these classifications more reliable, he grouped images of each location taken during periods of a few months, and compared them with a year’s worth of data from before the war.
Homes, shopping centres, government buildings and a gold-domed Orthodox church were wrecked. For the 200,000 residents of the two towns, these scenes may be reminiscent of Russia's last invasion in 2014, where many buildings were also destroyed.As Russia’s offensive efforts petered out, they left Kharkiv—a city that Russia was never able to capture, despite an early raid at the war’s outset—pockmarked with scars.
In mid-September Ukraine launched an attack to take back Lyman, and regained control on October 1st. This second wave of fighting was markedly less destructive. Of previously unharmed buildings around 7% suffered damage in the counter-offensive. Russia now has its sights on Lyman again, attacking from forests to the east.A year on from the invasion, fighting in urban areas still rages. Russia began shelling Bakhmut in May, and has tried to besiege it ever since.
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