The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty died last week. Here's why that's a recipe for rising nuclear danger:
Share to twitterRussian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attend a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow on February 23.The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty died last week. The cause of death was changing geopolitical circumstances. The INF Treaty was 32. As treaty-years between major powers go, that’s a full lifetime.
The INF Treaty was Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev’s most historic achievement. They didn't care for nuclear theology and war-fighting plans based on escalation ladders. They agreed that a nuclear war could not be won and must never be fought, and they were both in a position to override their nuclear-military-industrial complexes. The INF Treaty was the result.
Anti-arms controllers in the United States wanted what Putin wanted — missiles with ranges that could be useful in Asia and Europe. But this time around, finding host countries won't be easy. Perhaps new NATO members in Eastern Europe might be willing to host conventionally-armed missiles, because U.S. support personnel if not troops would be part of the package. Finding host countries in Asia will an assignment for the new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper.
Without the ABM Treaty and the INF Treaty, more rather that less nuclear offenses are in our future. Does this that we’re headed toward a new nuclear arms race? This is not the best framework for characterizing what lies ahead. Nothing ahead of us will compare to the arms racing of the past, especially during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Money is tighter now in Russia, and many Americans have recognized that nuclear weapons aren’t all that useful.
The INF, ABM and New START treaties have helped prevent mushroom clouds and have kept the nuclear peace during and after the Cold War. They are the thickest strands of the nuclear safety net for the major powers. The last load-bearing strand is about to be severed.
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