Crude oil prices have declined sharply over the past two sessions, falling back below their one-month moving average (daily 21-EMA) in the process. Volatile two-way price action remains likely as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its 3rd month.
A reconstituted triangle pattern suggests that crude oil prices are seeing meager bullish momentum after a topside breakout last week. While not textbook, a potential evening star candlestick pattern emerged between Friday and Tuesday, indicating that the bullish breakout effort will fail. But for a few days in early-March, crude oil prices have largely remained between the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extension levels measured from the November 2020 low, October 2021 high, and December 2021.
Bearish momentum is beginning to set back in, oil prices below their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope . Daily MACD is on the verge of dropping below its signal line, while daily Slow Stochastics failed to reach overbought territory and are turning lower. A move back towards recent lows near 94.42 is possible in the near-term.On the weekly timeframe, it remains clear that that bullish momentum has stalled.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias.
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