IF I could name three people who have been prominently influential in the public discussion around GERS it’d be statistical stalwarts Jim and…
are not those of 2015 and before and that substantial improvements have been made not just in the calculation and presentation of the figures but in the communication of them, as what they don’t say is at least as important as what they do. In particular, they have been better in recent years in explaining how their various estimates are calculated and what the limits and ranges of those estimates are .
I’ll break from tradition somewhat and not do a deep dive into too many of the numbers around the deficit and energy, as many others will have already looked at those by the time you read this. But it is worth considering where the UK’s regional inequalities show up in things like Scotland’s tax revenue.
Compared to North Britain, Scotland brings in around £1.8 billion less in income tax. This is because, in our world and despite the relatively more progressive nature of Scottish income taxes, salaries are relatively lower than the UK average. Scotland also generated around £1.3bn less in onshore corporation tax than North Britain did. GERS is fairly smart about the way it calculates corporation tax.
Scotland’s lower house prices brings in substantially less in property taxes – council tax and stamp duty/LBTT and lower property prices have the knock on effect of lower insurance prices thus lower insurance taxes. Between the three, that’s another £1bn less than North Britain. Take off another £700 million in capital gains and inheritance tax because our patterns of wealth are very different.
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