A new Science analysis finds that by September 2021, India’s cumulative COVID deaths were 6-7 times higher than reported. If confirmed, the findings may require substantial upward revision of the WHO's estimates of cumulative global COVID mortality.
. Summary estimates of excess deaths in India nationally and for states with ten or more months of data .
Notes: Table S6 provides the input data. *For the independent national survey, these are COVID deaths, and for facility and civil registration deaths, these are all-cause excess deaths. †Out of the annual average of 428,000 CRS deaths for pre-pandemic years of Rajasthan , only 218,000 deaths or 51% were available for our calculations. Similarly, for Maharashtra only 66% of CRS deaths were available. This, we have adjusted the percentages in the last column to the available data.
Applying these proportions to expected overall deaths from June 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, yielded an estimate of 3.2 million COVID deaths, or 29% of expected all-cause deaths during the 13-month period, including during the interspersed weeks of assumed lower transmission. The majority of COVID deaths India experienced throughout the pandemic occurred from April 1 to July 1, 2021 .
The COVID Tracker survey’s introductory question focused on flu-like symptoms among immediate family members, but the COVID question asked: “Has anyone in your family or surroundings been infected from Corona Virus?” If the self-reported answer was yes, respondents were asked whether the infected individual died. To address a possible limitation of over-reporting , from June 15-Sept 1, 2021 we implemented a sub-study among a randomly selected 10% of households from the COVID Tracker Panel.
We ascertained from approximately 57,000 people in 13,500 households who lived in the immediate household as of January 1, 2019, who died and when, and if the respondent thought the death was due to COVID or a non-COVID cause . The criterion of “immediate household” included parents and unmarried adults. This sub-study recorded 415, 618 and 1074 all-cause deaths in 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively, corresponding to crude death rates per 1000 people of 7.2, 10.8 and 18.8, respectively ).
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