Covid forecast: Major fall surge unlikely, but variants are a wild card

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Covid forecast: Major fall surge unlikely, but variants are a wild card
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Infectious disease experts are guardedly optimistic that the reformulated covid boosters and built-up immunity will prevent a fall covid surge.

until the new year,The most pessimistic scenario is that a new variant will appear and the booster campaign will get rolling late, resulting in a projected 1.3 million hospitalizations and 181,000 deaths over a nine-month period , compared with 700,000 hospitalizations and 111,000 deaths in the most optimistic scenario, with no new variant and an early start to the booster campaign.compares disease modeling to weather forecasting.

“People are not wearing masks,” George said. “People are running around in bigger groups. People are traveling more. Schools are not having any kind of mitigation. Will that impact spread in a bigger way as well?”

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