Governments scramble to mitigate the shock
beach is deserted and football stadiums are being turned into field hospitals. Colombia has shut its border with Venezuela. Seabirds have taken possession of Peruvian beaches and a puma was spotted ambling through the suburbs of Santiago, Chile’s capital. Covid-19 has now arrived in strength in Latin America. With it have come lockdowns in many countries, though some leaders remain in denial, storing up trouble. Everywhere, it is threatening and testing both public health and livelihoods.
Nobody knows how long quarantines will last, so forecasts involve more guesswork than usual. Early this year Ben Ramsey of J.P. Morgan Chase, a bank, had reckoned on growth of 1.2% in Latin America. Now he thinks the region will contract by 2.2%, assuming a recovery in the second half of the year. Santiago Levy, a former chief economist of theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, which predicts a fall of 1.8%, thinks the number of poor people will rise from 185m to 220m .
But here they face a difficulty: most Latin Americans work in small businesses and are in the informal economy. Emergency payments can reach formal workers and, through conditional cash-transfer programmes, the poorest. That leaves out a large segment of the lower-middle and working classes.
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