Donald Trump is facing a vote soon. Despite 70,000 deaths, few Americans have changed their opinion of him yet
has been toppled by a plague, but so far covid-19 is having the opposite effect. Most leaders have seen their approval ratings rise, even as the disease has killed at least 250,000 people., a pollster, has found that a group of ten politicians have enjoyed an average gain of nine percentage points since the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic on March 11th. The sentiment has been felt widely: in Australia and Canada, India and Germany.
Academics call this pattern the “rally-round-the-flag” effect. It has often benefited American presidents during international crises. Studies have found that surging patriotism and meeker opposition both contribute. Yet not all catastrophes are a boon. George W. Bush’s lacklustre response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 punctured his ratings. Tony Blair’s fell after Islamists bombed London in 2005, as did François Hollande’s after the Paris attacks in 2015.
Today, voters have rallied round leaders who took covid-19 seriously. The largest bounces are in Australia, Canada and Germany, where death rates have been low among rich Western countries. Despite France’s bad outbreak, a solemn Emmanuel Macron has gained some credit. Britons got behind Boris Johnson at first. A recent dip may reflect fears that a tardy lockdown led to thousands of extra deaths.
The four leaders who have fared least well stand accused of ineptitude. Japan’s response to the outbreak compares well with most countries’, but not with its Asian neighbours. The presidents of America, Mexico and Brazil have all suggested that fears about covid-19 are overblown. Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Donald Trump have seen only modest bounces. Jair Bolsonaro has lost nine points.
Mr Trump is the only leader of the ten facing a vote soon. Despite 70,000 deaths, few Americans have changed their opinions of him yet, but he cannot afford to lose many supporters before November.This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline "Following the leader"
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